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Latest writing

Essays on applied AI systems and the operating models around them.

A rising arc connecting electricity, spreadsheets, the internet, and AI, annotated with the recurring stages of a technology transition
01Transition pattern

From Spreadsheets to the Internet to AI: The Pattern Behind Every Technology Transition

Major technologies get misread at the start, adopted unevenly, governed late, and only pay off once the work is rebuilt around them. AI is running that same arc on fast-forward. Treat it as an operating-model change, not a tool rollout.

technology transitionsgeneral-purpose technologyAI strategy
May 14, 202610 min
Two curves showing technology access rising early while measured productivity lags, with a shaded gap labeled the lag
02Productivity lag

Electricity Took Decades to Pay Off. AI Faces the Same Lag.

When factories first electrified, they bolted motors into steam-era layouts and saw almost nothing. The gains showed up only after the work itself was redesigned. Expect the same gap between AI access and AI productivity, and meet it with disciplined learning instead of waiting.

productivitychange managementworkflow redesign
May 16, 20269 min
A stylized spreadsheet grid with one formula cell highlighted to show a hidden assumption beneath a polished, quantitative artifact
03Democratized power

What Spreadsheets Teach Us About AI: Democratized Power, Hidden Risk

VisiCalc and Lotus 1-2-3 did more than speed up arithmetic. They changed who could model a business at all, and they buried assumptions deep inside formulas. AI democratizes analytical production the same way, and it makes shaky reasoning sound fluent. The fix is review that scales with the new producers.

spreadsheetsmodel riskverification
May 18, 202611 min
An adoption curve rising from 14 percent in 1995 to 96 percent today with a governance line trailing behind it
04Governance lag

The Internet's Skeptics Were Wrong About Adoption, and Right About Governance

In 1995, 14 percent of US adults were online, and famous voices predicted the whole thing would collapse. They were wrong about how far it would spread and often right about the institutional messes that uncontrolled adoption would cause. Pull those two questions apart for AI: will it spread, and what does safe use actually require?

internet historyAI governanceadoption
May 20, 202611 min
Six labeled tiles naming the recurring dynamics of major technology transitions
05Common patterns

Six Patterns Every Technology Transition Repeats

Across electricity, spreadsheets, computers, and the internet, the same six organizational dynamics decide whether a technology becomes an advantage or an unmanaged risk. Here is each one, and what it asks of anyone preparing for AI.

adoption patternsoperating modelAI strategy
May 22, 202612 min
An irregular frontier line with success markers inside it and failure markers just outside it
06Jagged frontier

AI's Jagged Frontier: Why It Is Like Past Technologies, and Why It Is Not

AI is a general-purpose technology whose value depends on complementary innovation, the same as electricity and the internet. But it breaks the mold in three ways that change how you manage it: it lands on high-skill work, its barrier to entry is plain language, and it can be brilliant and dead wrong on tasks that look identical.

jagged frontierhuman in the looptask design
May 24, 202612 min
A value-versus-risk matrix beside a numbered list of ten AI preparation steps
07Operating playbook

Preparing for AI: A Ten-Part Operating Playbook

If AI is an operating-model change rather than a tool rollout, preparation turns into concrete work. Ten steps follow, from making the task the unit of analysis to measuring outcomes instead of activity, and together they turn loose experimentation into governed advantage.

AI governanceoperating modeladoption playbook
May 26, 202614 min
Three ascending bands from controlled enablement to workflow redesign to business-model transformation
08Three horizons

Three Horizons for the AI Transition: From Controlled Enablement to New Business Models

Run the AI transition in three overlapping horizons: controlled enablement, workflow redesign, and business-model transformation. It is the path from safe access to redesigned work to genuinely new value, and it dodges both passivity and reckless acceleration.

strategythree horizonsbusiness model
May 28, 202611 min
Model routing board comparing frontier, small proprietary, and open-weight models by task quality and cost
09Cost per task

Small Models Are Catching Up. Your AI Strategy Should Notice.

Do not buy model hype. Benchmark the work your company actually does, then route each job to the cheapest model that reliably clears the bar.

cost per taskmodel routingopen-weight AI
May 202612 min
Hybrid inference architecture with private endpoints, hosted models, local hardware, observability, and policy controls
010Inference control

Own Your Inference, Own Your Data, Stability, and Security

Inference is turning into strategic infrastructure. Which API is cheapest is no longer the only question that matters; which parts of the AI stack your company controls matters just as much.

inferenceAI infrastructuresecurity
May 202611 min
Internal AI harness classifying tasks, assigning risk, routing models, validating outputs, and logging accepted work
011AI operating model

Own Your Harness, Own Your Cost and Effectiveness

Enterprises need their own internal AI routing layer, not just access to ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Cursor, or whatever lab surface is most popular this month.

AI harnessgovernancecost control
May 202611 min
Layered execution map with planning gates, work packages, verification paths, and approval checkpoints
012Planning systems

How I Plan With AI

I do not ask AI to decide. I use it to make ambiguity visible before execution starts.

planningagentic workexecution
April 20269 min
A receding wall of social posts grouped into repeated archetypes with an echo index scanner overlay
013Signal quality

The Echo Chamber Index

I spent a week auditing my LinkedIn feed. Everyone posts about AI, and that part is fine. The unsettling part is how identical the posts have started to sound.

writingAI literacysignal
April 20268 min
Three ascending AI adoption levels with blockers, guardrails, and capability checkpoints
014Enterprise adoption

The Three Levels of AI Adoption

Most adoption programs stall because they treat AI literacy as a single skill. It is really a progression, from answers to collaboration to orchestration.

enterprise AIliteracyoperating model
April 202610 min
A human operator orchestrating tools, agents, data, and enterprise systems over a layered AI operating system
015Organization design

Everyone Is a Design Engineer Now

As AI commoditizes knowledge, the scarce capability becomes designing, directing, and validating systems of work.

design engineeringAI operating systemleadership
April 20269 min
A modular enterprise architecture stack with swappable models, agents, data sources, guardrails, and observability planes
016Enterprise architecture

The Composable Enterprise

In an AI market that changes monthly, durable advantage comes from systems designed to be replaced.

architectureAI gatewaygovernance
April 202610 min